Russia is at it again!

[I/O]

What even more frightening than this conflict are the words from Putin when he said that Georgia had lost the right to rule part of it's own country.  A frightening similarity between the current quote and Hitler's reason for taking the Sudetenland. A tyrant is a tyrant whether he wears a suit or a uniform.

I think Russia actions also may have backfired. I would not be suprised if NATO now does allow membership for Georgia. I'm sure Russia knows this, and now has only one choice, and that is to topple the government of Georgia. The Russian Bear has backed itself in a corner. It doesn't have any more options, while the west has plenty that they have yet to use. 

Thin understanding IMO. Russia has far more options than the west does right now in this one. NATO cannot and will not accelerate Ukraine or Georgian membership whilst this lies on the table. Nato has laid down some guidelines as an eventual road map in but there is no short term liklihood of membership for either country.

Russia is well positioned with winter coming to tap Ukraine on the shoulder and ask, "Would you like another cold winter, how good is your memory, you know these unfortunate breakdowns we have with the gas lines". Ukraine will bubble and squeak, but ultimately is in no position right now to argue with Russia, particularly with winter coming. In this respect, Europe is slightly better positioned, but not greatly.

Russia will make every effort to cripple Georgia and in particular the Oil transit line. I think toppling the government is of less importance to Russia short term because if the economy is dead the government will fall by the wayside in due course anyway. Don't be surprised (I am not predicting, just sayin') if Georgia is ultimately returned to the UGPR (Union of Gaz Prom Republics) .

I/O

[wxman]

Russia is well positioned with winter coming to tap Ukraine on the shoulder and ask, "Would you like another cold winter, how good is your memory, you know these unfortunate breakdowns we have with the gas lines". Ukraine will bubble and squeak, but ultimately is in no position right now to argue with Russia, particularly with winter coming. In this respect, Europe is slightly better positioned, but not greatly.
I/O

Ukraine has just as much power on this issue. They can just steal the gas as it transits through into western Europe. They did it before and they can do it again. If Russia cuts off the gas at the point of entry, then western Europe doesn't get a large part of it's gas either and Russia gets no money. Ukraine would come out smelling like roses as they already have an agreement with Russia on gas supply, and Russia arbitrarily cutting off gas to keep Ukraine in line would not be taken too kindly by western Europe. That's of course if western Europe has the balls to stand up to Russia.

As far as NATO and Georgia, if NATO refuses Georgia membership, it doesn't prevent an agreement between Georgia and the US for a joint large military base or naval base. That may be one of the options the US was referring too when Bush said they would have to review the US future plans towards Russia.

[I/O]

Ukraine has just as much power on this issue. They can just steal the gas as it transits through into western Europe.

One can't steal anything if there is none to steal. The Ukrainians can poke their nose hopefully up the end of the pipe, but if it is empty................

If Russia cuts off the gas at the point of entry, then western Europe doesn't get a large part of it's gas either and Russia gets no money.

Didn't break them last time and they are better cashed by the day.

Ukraine would come out smelling like roses as they already have an agreement with Russia on gas supply, and Russia arbitrarily cutting off gas to keep Ukraine in line would not be taken too kindly by western Europe.

Ukraine would come out smelling of dead corpses, like the 1500 dead corpses last time Russia cut off the gas supply mid winter.

That's of course if western Europe has the balls to stand up to Russia.

Europe can have the biggest balls in the world, but if they are frozen and drop off due to lack of heating gas, then they become footballs and nothing more, much like an argument over gas supply will.

As far as NATO and Georgia, if NATO refuses Georgia membership, it doesn't prevent an agreement between Georgia and the US for a joint large military base or naval base. That may be one of the options the US was referring too when Bush said they would have to review the US future plans towards Russia.

NATO has already effectively refused Georgia membership, all the Georgians have now is a road map for possible entry at some obscure future time. No bases yet? Good luck getting that through the American electorate this year. By the end of the year, Georgia may not even exist. I agree, bases there would suit USA very well, particularly in light of the Iran being on the radar but I highly doubt Russia is going to stand by and watch that happen without some muscle being flexed. Right now, I think Russia is holding all the aces and I think they are doing so for all the wrong reasons. Doesn't change the reality.

[Ronnie]

But Ronnie... Bush looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul..  Why in the world is he now so surprised...  Another lapse in intelligence?

BC, can we agree that Bush has said and done some stupid things?  But that doesn't mean that every world action has to revolve around him or the US.  Don't let such things blind you to the objective facts.  Even a broken watch does not alway give the wrong time.

[steviej]

The continued push of NATO east since the fall of the soviet union, mainly at the instigation of the US, is an aggressively military move (NATO is at heart a military alliance afterall ) and is a legitimage threat to Russia. It is also an unnecessary provacation by the US against Russia. And talk about spheres of interest, it continues to boggle my mine how American voters accept that basically anywhere is  "Strategic american interest" anytime the governemnt/global capitalists say so. We are like sheep. We work more hours than anyone, and the sweat of your brow is pissed away on conflict all around the world (we have unimaginable debts from Iraq already.)

I am 100% for Russia in this. I hope they quickly kick Georgia's obnoxious ass, reabsorg SO, get back all the ethnic Russians they want. And NATO can go to hell. So can the "United Nations". Man, what a load of cr*p that thing is. How easy it is to get people to accept this stuff amazes me.

Washington, Jefferson, Madison ... where are you ?? Please save our demented republic of united states !!!!

[wxman]

We have a problem Houston. When the Russian president and PM declare that Georgia no longer has the right to rule part of it's own country, the world is going to look upon Russia as an aggressor. A million man army taking on a 25,000 man army. This is all going to backfire on Russia. If Russia thinks the US is going to back down on this then they are just another country that has underestimated the US resolve. Too bad they have to learn it twice. Once during the cold war, and now. It will be their big mistake. Georgia made a mistake trying to reel in their separatist region with force, Russia made a bigger mistake invading a sovereign nation. It backfired on the US with it's invasion of Iraq. Now it's going to bite the Russian bear on the butt. This will not scare the rest of eastern Europe into submission. Most likely it will have the reverse effect. It will push them closer to the west. 
Russia just did all the hard work for the US with this blunder. Anybody who believes Russia's BS on this matter, can't see that nothing has changed in Russia.  Russia is a boy trying to play a man's game. Georgia called them out, and is now making them look like fools. Russia will now appear as the bully on the block. Funny they can't smell their own sh** in their pants.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/369686.htm

[steviej]

If Russia thinks the US is going to back down on this then they are just another country that has underestimated the US resolve.

The US resolve for what? This has nothing to do with US. We are just drunk with bully politics, war, and spending the hard earned tax dollars of America's workers all over the world to make our p*n*ses feel big.

Georgia isn't even a real country anyway, and hasn't been since 1250 thereabouts. A nation must be able to defend itself. Otherwise it is a vanity on a disneyworld table cloth. Someone already mentioned that Georgia wouldn't move except that they think US and NATO will fire their big guns for them.

The Caucus is Russian sphere of interest first and foremost.

I may be in a minority, but I rather like the Russian Empire.   

[P.S. don't get me wrong, I don't like , in abstract, the idea of people getting killed for no reason, but its a regional conflict , and should remain so. However, no one with a big gun likes to stay out of a fight, or at least beligerantly express their opinion, right?]

[wxman]

The US resolve for what? This has nothing to do with US. We are just drunk with bully politics, war, and spending the hard earned tax dollars of America's workers all over the world to make our p*n*ses feel big.

The Russians are trying to prove they have one. Just a boy going through puberty

Georgia isn't even a real country anyway, and hasn't been since 1250 thereabouts. A nation must be able to defend itself. Otherwise it is a vanity on a disneyworld table cloth. Someone already mentioned that Georgia wouldn't move except that they think US and NATO will fire their big guns for them.

According to the UN, which Russia approved, they are a country. I guess since Iraq can't defend itself, it is not a nation, nor either is Afghanistan, so why are you upset with the US being there?

I may be in a minority, but I rather like the Russian Empire.   

It may be an empire, but only in it's delusional mind. But it's ok to have dreams. 

[Ronnie]

StevieJ,

What I said to BC also applies to you x 2.  The NATO is not "pushing" to expand, Ukraine and Georgia have been seeking membership and have so far been denied.  How do the fact fit your comment?  You who is opposed to war is backing Russia all the way and hope they kick Geogia's a$$.  Tell me how that works.

[steviej]

StevieJ,
What I said to BC also applies to you x 2.  The NATO is not "pushing" to expand, Ukraine and Georgia have been seeking membership and have so far been denied.  How do the fact fit your comment?  You who is opposed to war is backing Russia all the way and hope they kick Geogia's a$$.  Tell me how that works.

Ronnie, NATO has expanded EAST by some 10 (!) or so countries since the fall of the Soviet Union. It is right up to Russia's doorsteps. If I was Russia, I would consider NATO a serious threat. (Which is what US want's it to be, IMHO) US is also pushing to put missile systems on the eastern edge of NATO. Again, a beligerant and serious threat, legitimatley IMHO, to Russia, from RU perspective.

I am not opposed to war in any absolute sense. I am opposed to pissing away my tax dollars on drunked US beligerancy that doesn't affect me or my children's life. I want roads, hospitals, lower tuition for public universities, social security solvent, rebuilding our bridge and highway infrastructure, securing our mexican border, deporting illegals, etc etc . All that takes money. We don't have any because we're always blowing it up somewhere else. That's my beef. If someone tries to mess with North America I expect my government and military to rip them up good.     Otherwise, don't waste my money !!!!!!!!!

[steviej]

The Russians are trying to prove they have one. Just a boy going through puberty

wxman .. good one !! 

According to the UN, which Russia approved, they are a country. I guess since Iraq can't defend itself, it is not a nation, nor either is Afghanistan, so why are you upset with the US being there?

Upset about US in Iraq ??? Because it is a collosal f**king waste of my money !! In 2000, US government had surplus. Now, 7 years later, we are the largest debtor nation in the world, and growing. It is a financial catastrophe. All this for "Iraqi freedom?" Give me a f**in' break !!

Personally I don't care at all whether Iraq is, or is not, a "nation".

And, don't get me started on the "UN" .... LOL, oh my ....

[steviej]

But Ronnie... Bush looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul.. 

Another brilliant foreign policy statement by a US president ??  .. 

[steviej]

You who is opposed to war is backing Russia all the way and hope they kick Geogia's a$$.  Tell me how that works.

Spiritually, I am praying that the Georgia, Russia, and SOs put down their weapons and settle their differences peacefully.  But if they don't, I would like to see it remain a regional conflict, to be ended as quickly as possible, and for everyone to stay out of it. WWI is a great analogy, if you want to see how everyone's "good intentions" and "strategic interests" can turn a regional conflict into a global graveyard.


Late breaking news: Here we go ..... 
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080811/ap_on_re_as/bush_asia

[Ronnie]

Steviej,

You're making it sound like NATO is some bogey man bent on domination - taking over countries as it moves east.  Jeez Louise!  You well know that NATO is an organization of countries who have seen the agression and brutality of the Russian bear and the need to keep him in check.  The newest members know what it's like to be under the Kremlin's jack boot and want no part of that in the future. (Putin has practically vowed to restore the old SU with the statement that it's breakup was a great tragedy)

Some historical precedents:

Hungary,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_Revolution_of_1956

Czechoslovakia,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prague_spring

Afghanistan...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_afghan_war

Lithuania..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vilnius_massacre

[Blues Fairy]

I hope NATO members realize the need to keep the Georgian (bear?) in check too, considering his very ruthless and hypocritical politics towards his neighbors, as well as within his own country.  Meanwhile, Russia has absolutely no reason not to use this opportunity to set him straight. 

[wxman]

I am not opposed to war in any absolute sense. I am opposed to pissing away my tax dollars on drunked US beligerancy that doesn't affect me or my children's life. I want roads, hospitals, lower tuition for public universities, social security solvent, rebuilding our bridge and highway infrastructure, securing our mexican border, deporting illegals, etc etc . All that takes money. We don't have any because we're always blowing it up somewhere else. That's my beef. If someone tries to mess with North America I expect my government and military to rip them up good.     Otherwise, don't waste my money !!!!!!!!!

I think the Russian people want the same as you do, except the Mexican border thing.    So I'm not sure they will want a protracted war, much less an occupation. They do remember Afghanistan. Even though the Russian army could easily defeat the Georgian army, a prolonged stay in another country where the people in that country will do whatever to make the lives miserable for the Russians, will not only bring back bad memories, but will be a drain on their system. All they have to do is look at the situation in Iraq. I'm sure that would not sit well on their plate. in the end, everything will end up as it was, but now with a little more hate between the 2 countries.  

[Ronnie]

I hope NATO members realize the need to keep the Georgian (bear?) in check too, considering his very ruthless and hypocritical politics towards his neighbors, as well as within his own country.  Meanwhile, Russia has absolutely no reason not to use this opportunity to set him straight. 

Care to elaborate?

[steviej]

Steviej,

You're making it sound like NATO is some bogey man bent on domination - taking over countries as it moves east.  ...

Ronnie, I'm saying from Russia's perspective. If I was Russia, I would consider the growth and extension of NATO to the East as a serious threat. I think it is a valid point of view. How do you think US would react if Canada and Mexico had wanted to join the Warsaw pac?

[By the way, about the dangerous "bear", for all practical purposes, Germany and England started WWI, and again started WWII. And for the sake of "saving" Poland, Churchill gave 100 million people and all Eastern Europe to Stalin. FDR and Winston even talked about how much they liked him. Then there's Korea, Vietnam, .... Iraq .. The dangerous bear has very little blood on his hands compared to us. I know it seems wierd to an American to think of it that way.]

I'm curious, do you suppose that guys married to Ukrainian women are on different sides of this than guys married to Russian women ?? 

[Blues Fairy]

Care to elaborate?

Certainly.
Saakashvili is US's friend not because he is a democratically elected president of a westernized nation, that's complete bullshit.  He is supported thanks to the US's policy to support the leaders who treat the US as a friend, regardless of how they treat their own people and neighbors.  Having Georgia ship the Azeri oil through the pipeline bypassing Russia is also a very convenient circumstance.  But it would be a mistake to let Saakashvili get away with what he's doing now in the separatist regions, and I hope NATO members see it as clearly as Russia does, despite all their pro-Georgian bias.

[I/O]

Having Georgia ship the Azeri oil through the pipeline bypassing Russia is also a very convenient circumstance.

B/F, yes it is very convenient and it is something which has annoyed Russia no end, but guess what, it's called competition, much like Chinese manufacturing is to many western manufacturers. On that subject, I would say to Russia, stop sooking and get over it, you will find much more of the same if you want to become a serious economic player in the modern world.

despite all their pro-Georgian bias

I am not convinced all the NATO members are pro Georgian. Georgia has not exactly been serenaded in at this point. Georgia has been given a list of things to clean up if it is indeed to be seriously considered for membership. Thus far, in a few short months since Bucharest, Georgia has failed miserably on that list.

I don't agree with Saakashvili on recent actions at all, BUT I do think Russia's response, although entirely disproportionate, was completely predictable. I simply can't understand why he tried this on at this stage, if indeed he is the real driver behind it. If so, he is as mad as uncle Joe was. The popular Russian thinking at this time seems to be he IS as mad as uncle Joe.

what he's doing now in the separatist regions

C'mon B/F, you're a pretty sharp lady with more thinking capacity than that. You think Moscow wouldn't get awfully testy if Siberia said, hey FU we're going it alone and we have China to back us up? SO is part of Georgia and decided it wanted to bail out which was entirely convenient for Moscow. Wouldn't/doesn't any country try to pull the wannbe's back into line (Rightly or wrongly)?

Almost every Russian I have spoken to on this subject thus far (Until they have thought it all through a little) including my wife has sounded exactly similar to the man they love to bash, namely George Bush............ala "you are either with us or you are against us." The reality seems to be that both sides ****ed up and the only tangible result thus far is a lot of mothers weeping for the sons they will see no more, children who will never know their fathers or fathers who will never know their children and wives left to rebuild their lives alone. So much for justifying the actions of either side.

BTW I have no problem with Russia stepping in to clean up a mess in SO, but I do object to bombing sea ports etc inside Georgia and outside SO, in exactly the same way as I had no problem with the USA and others kicking Iraq out of Kuwait in 1991 but I have always objected to the latter specific entry into Iraq. If the big boys want to play world police, OK but use restraint. Both USA and Russia, in various regional conflicts, including the current one, have exercised a distinct lack of restraint.

The hand that Russia is playing with it's own media is quite clever. All the world is saying we are bad and pity poor us. My wifes family back home was rather surprised to learn that our little media down here was NOT saying Russia was all bad, it was simply saying all sides should back off and cool down a little. That sent them into quite a discussion last night about why the RU media would be saying every western country is up Russia's ribs on this one. At that point, I think, they started to get a clue that they are not exactly being told the whole truth.

I/O

[Blues Fairy]

I/O, you are sharp enough to realize that in an armed conflict, there is no "disproportionate" response.  It's a WAR (started by Georgia by the way) and the side that has the upper had should not be automatically labeled a villain.  Nor is it automatically a villain if it claims its geopolitical gains as a result of the conflict.  Wars are not won by exercising restraint and helping the other side; they are won by employing effective tactics and disabling the opponent by cutting off his armed forces from all possible sources of support.  E.g. bringing the war ships to the waters, if need be.

As you know, I have no problem admitting Russia's mistakes where they are being made, but this is an entirely different situation.  Russian peacekeepers were in S. Ossettia and Abkhasia at the request of these nations and Georgia, and with UN endorsement.  If Siberia were annexed by China but requested that we keep peacekeepers in the region, we would certainly get "testy" if China started to attack those peacekeepers and the local folks.  Especially if 80% of Siberians had Russian passports. 

[Ronnie]

For the record, when South Ossetia separatists declared independence in the early 90s ..  no nation recognized them...not even the Russian Federation.  Russia recognizes South Ossetia as an autonomous region on Georgia.  Let me repeat.  These are not Russians that the Kremlin pretends to be protecting.  The Kremlin set up this pretense by giving them Russian passports,

BF..exactly what do you mean Saakashvili was not democratically elected?  Which of Georgia's neighbors has been mistreated?

You mention the Azeri Pipeline.  Does the fact that Russia is now trying to bomb the pipeline demonstrate the wisdom of not running it over Russian territory where the Kremlin could use it as leverage as they have done with natural gas to Ukraine and Western Europe? It's one thing to be mistrusted, but quite another thing to have proved that mistrust to be properly placed.

[Ronnie]

So Georgia started it, eh?

.... For more than 10 days Georgian territory was shelled from Osetian positions.  Russian peacekeepers watched it passively. Saakashvili called on Russia to calm down  the leadership of South Osetia, threatened to use force, and finally it all boiled over ... Russia did nothing to diminish the tension. And that's how  Georgian military action in South Osetia turned into regular war (...)  They (the Russians) bombed all military airfields, harbor in Poti, several military bases. Georgians can;t believe that they are in regular war with Russia. Nobody expected  that Russia would react so violently to the events in SOuth Osetia. Georgians are astonished  and upset that Russia used a pretext to start a regular war against Georgia.
Oleg Panfilow

*Oleg Panfilow is the chief of to Moscow Center for Extreme Journalism. Since the  demise of the USSR he reported on all military conflicts in its former territories. He chronicles the abuses against freedom of expression and repressions against journalists in the former USSR.

[Ronnie]

More from Panfilow:

Georgians know Russia. They know that ordinary Russians are not responsible for this war; t he politics of Putin is. This war proves where the process started in Russia by Putin will lead us.  It does not matter that he is not a president any more, but a prime minister. I am certain that Putin  makes key decisions regarding the war against Georgia.

There is also a delegation of Czech parliament in Georgia. Just a ceasefire will not be enough. There must be pressure on Putin so that Russia will never again behave like this.  Because if you allow them once, under a feeble pretext, to invade  Georgia, any other country can be the next in line. this is the sense of this war to me.  This is not just some local skirmish. This is a war for the shape of relationship between the West and Russia.

[Ronnie]

I/O, you are sharp enough to realize that in an armed conflict, there is no "disproportionate" response.  It's a WAR (started by Georgia by the way) and the side that has the upper had should not be automatically labeled a villain.  Nor is it automatically a villain if it claims its geopolitical gains as a result of the conflict.  Wars are not won by exercising restraint and helping the other side; they are won by employing effective tactics and disabling the opponent by cutting off his armed forces from all possible sources of support.  E.g. bringing the war ships to the waters, if need be.

As you know, I have no problem admitting Russia's mistakes where they are being made, but this is an entirely different situation.  Russian peacekeepers were in S. Ossettia and Abkhasia at the request of these nations and Georgia, and with UN endorsement.  If Siberia were annexed by China but requested that we keep peacekeepers in the region, we would certainly get "testy" if China started to attack those peacekeepers and the local folks.  Especially if 80% of Siberians had Russian passports. 

BF, I can find nothing authentic in your last statement.  You are informed enough, I hope, you know that S. Ossetia and Abkhazia are not nations.  They are internationally recognized regions of Georgia.

Georgia has long asked the UN to replace the Russian peacekeepers as they were not being neutral but helping the separatists.  Not wanting to offend Russia, the UN refused.

You may not have a problem admitting Russia's mistakes but does that also cover Russia's intentional misdeeds?