Russia is at it again!

[Shadow]

Well this was what I wanted to tell you, of course russians will deny almost everything but do not care, they used to tell, are telling aand will tell LIES till someone will stop them, I hope it will happen soon.

Best wishes From GEORGIA, TBILISI

Allright Warrior let me ask you some questions.

First of all how old are you ?
How many buildings in Georgia are of before 1800.
Why do you believe it is correct of the Georgian president to attack and kill his own citizens ?
Why is it that you got independence from Russia under the condition that each part could choose its own destiny but you feel it is false for those regions to follow it ?

If you were Russia, and someone had attacked your peace keepers, how would you have reacted ?

[Shadow]

When a bully sizes up another and deems him weak, the bully will become more agressive.... not less. 

Chronic failure to understand this simple lesson is what creates wars and need for wars.  Weak-knees and pacificism in the face of a strong aggressor is a disasterous formula.  In the real world, peace can only be achieved through strength.

I agree. However when a country shows its strength to achieve peace, it is called out to be the bully.
And that goes not only for Russia, but for the US as well.

[Shadow]

Tim,
What has Putin gained?  He will not achieve regime change in Georgia which was his goal.  He has galvanized other "near abroad" nations against him and moved fence sitters to oppose him and favor the west.  In all, Putin will have demonstated that,

There is nothing worse than aggressive stupidity.
  - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Ronnie, in your mindset of imperialistic Russia you seem to get the goals wrong.
A regime change in Georgia was not in Russia's interest and could have been achieved easily had Russia decided to continue for one or two days. But unlike people indicate, Russia is not keen on creating their own version of Iraq.
Warrior shows that that would create a civil war in Georgia, and with good right.

[Ronnie]

mxman, it's more than that. Under Petraeus the US military finally worked out the most important relationships for Iraqi's that the Americans could exploit. Tribal loyalties. Seriously, In an Arabic society they are hugely important. Previous military men in iraq didn't understand that and how to work with it.

You're right of course Deccie,  But there's more to those words of yours "worked out".  There a book out talking about how it happened that the tribal leaders, particularly in the Sunni Provinces, changed sides.  They looked at the two sets of foreigners..Al Qaeda and the Americans.  At first they thought the Americans would stay for while then leave, so they sided with Al Qaeda. 

But they saw that the Americans were not leaving and kept coming ever stonger.  The tribal leaders then decided the Americans were what the book calls "the strongest tribe" and saw it to be in their own best interests to join them.  Even the Shia leaders like Al Sadr decided the Americans were the stronger force.

Intelligence from the Iraqis on the ground make it possible to perform missions like these on Al Qaeda bases....

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Jn6nByuDS0&feature=related[/youtube]

[wxman]

Very interesting article from a business point of view. Georgia is basically just a diversion, and Russia's real intent is all about energy, and not about NATO or a small pipeline going through Georgia. Russia may have trumped the West again. Pretty smart move if the article is correct.

http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/08/19/gazprom-azerbaijan-georgia-markets-emerge-cz_hb_0819markets20.html

[deccie]

Personally I would rather not see videos like that on RWD.

Watching people die even if those people are "the enemy" is not my idea of entertainment.

[wxman]

Personally I would rather not see videos like that on RWD.

Watching people die even if those people are "the enemy" is not my idea of entertainment.

I would agree.

[Ronnie]

Nothing was presented as entertainment.  You've got your R rated movies for that. 

The people on the video al qaeda and the secondary explosions of the vehicles were their IEDs and mortars that they didn't get to use against innocent Iraqis or coalition troops.

[deccie]

Nothing was presented as entertainment.  You've got your R rated movies for that. 

Of which you would find no X rated or R rated movines in my household.

The people on the video al qaeda and the secondary explosions of the vehicles were their IEDs and mortars that they didn't get to use against innocent Iraqis or coalition troops.

Ronnie, there was simply no need to post the video. And how exactly do you know who everybody was in that video? Your taking it on prima facie evidence. You may well be right but there is no way you can be CERTIAN of that fact. And as I stated before i don't enjoy watching anyone die.

[Ronnie]

Very interesting article from a business point of view. Georgia is basically just a diversion, and Russia's real intent is all about energy, and not about NATO or a small pipeline going through Georgia. Russia may have trumped the West again. Pretty smart move if the article is correct.

http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/08/19/gazprom-azerbaijan-georgia-markets-emerge-cz_hb_0819markets20.html

I don't agree with young Heidi Brown and Russia lost influence, not gained in the region as she assumes.  She also says that Azerbaijan, by agreeing to sell most of it's gas to Gazprom wouldhave a "ready customer" without waiting for the western piplines to be built, then she realizes that Russia will need to build pipelines too. 

Oh well, she's young and really doesn't understand the subject she's writing about...but deadlines are deadlines in the magazine/newpaper business.

[wxman]

Good article on how poorly trained the Georgian troops are.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/1010/42/370022.htm

[kievstar]

Regarding Georgia.  Georgia army could be the best trained in the world and they would lose to most countries in the world.  There military budget is less than $1 billion a year.  Planes win "short" wars not people. Planes are very expensive.  Once planes get out of the picture warfare gets very hard and expensive for the invader.  Georgia gave up because they knew Russia has no issues with bombing civilians.  Plus they knew Russian ships were going to bombard there cities.  Russia has learned since Afghan war.  But Afghan was a big country.  Georgia is 4 million people.  Russia's military needs several trillion $ investment to take on strong countries.  Plus they need to attract more people to there military.  Population decrease is biggest problem Russia has in the future.  Georgia president might get what he wanted.  Which was to be in Nato.  Sometimes the loser actually wins. 

[msmoby_ru]

But even with "lacks both in training and equipment" Russians drove the well supported by West Georgian army into a corner and Saakashvili started his "cry for help because of Russian invasion of Georgia" after short time 

More correctly, I think you mean, a country with 25x the population and 500 x more tanks and aircraft, that miraculously had many divisions poised and active within Georgia - supporting the secessionists, invaded further into Georgia than they were telling the world, destroying all military hardware they could find..

Olga, I find it strange that there is ANYTHING to smile about ..as people lost their lives and the actions of leaders in Tbilisi, Moscow and Washington all exacerbated a "tinder- box" situation

[Ronnie]

According to wiki, inferiority complexes are usually subconscious and produce compensating behavior.  One is a need to improve and achieve.  Another is to evidence antisocial behavior. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inferiority_complex

 

[Warrior]

Allright Warrior let me ask you some questions.

First of all how old are you ?
How many buildings in Georgia are of before 1800.
Why do you believe it is correct of the Georgian president to attack and kill his own citizens ?
Why is it that you got independence from Russia under the condition that each part could choose its own destiny but you feel it is false for those regions to follow it ?

If you were Russia, and someone had attacked your peace keepers, how would you have reacted ?

Well, Mr Shadow if I wanted to show my age I would right it into my profile actually, it's not essential.

Quite many.

Yes I agree with you, it's not correct to attack and kill the citizens indeed, despite of ethnicity. That's why the whole world critices Kremlin, except HEZBOLAH, VENEZUELA AND CUBA, terrorist and dictators.

As I see you've readen my first topic fully, there you'll get the answer to your question

Firstly it would be horrible to be Russia, but you are so interested I'll tell you.
Well, if I was Russia, I would be the real, honor peacekeeper, so that there should not be any jealouses in my job and activity. I would not give help to hte separatists by weapon, moral support and I would not encouraged them against Georgians. But it is hard to do these things in condition when you are Russia, because Russia does not care about Ossetians, Abkhazians and Georgians. This two breakaway regions are only enticements to tease Georgians. Moreover they agreed Ossetians to involve Georgia in this conflict, just provocated Georgia whith help from the "peacekeepers". How could russians be peacekeepers when they are the side in war? So your question is illogical, they have started the conflict, they were shooting Georgians exactly, and it's obvious that some of them would get wounded, or killed. 

[Ronnie]

Shadow, you are an enigma to me.  You sit in neutral Holland, right?  You have no reason to choose sides in the conflict, right?  Yet, despite this seeming objectivity, you jump to one side before facts are known.

Okay, so what do we know that causes this separation of views?  We know that Georgia and her leader are trying to ally with NATO and the west.  In other words, they want to be like us in some respects.  We know that their leader, while young and untested, is multi-lingual, educated in the west.

Russia's leader we know to be a career KGB man who has never spent time living abroad (E. Germany only).  He has been implicated in several high profile assassinations (Litvinenko, Politkovskaya) and many others less well-publicized.  He has also been implicated in the slaughter of his own population both in Chechnya and in Russia proper (apartment bombings staged to justify a new war in Chechnya).   

Despite all this you believe in and support Russia's leader.  You can find fault in Saakashvili (he chews his tie when nervous) but cannot see the brutal history of the KGB man? 

Maybe as facts unfold your snap judgement will be proven right and most of the rest of the world to be wrong.  But from what is known to date?

[Warrior]

Russia lost it's occupied countries, post-soviet republics in 90's and now is loosing influence to them and this makes it irritated, they can not stand it, this is the reason, it's too simple.

[Ronnie]

And, Warrior, Putin is taking exactly the wrong approach and gaining influence.  He thinks he must repeat what was previously done and failed.  Using force and bald aggression. 

Putin's main obstacle to building Kremlin influence is that he cares nothing about individuals.  The west uses the soft approach, provides aid and support through many volunteers and NGOs.  But Putin's Russia simply demands respect and submission or else you will be punished.  This is the only method he knows.   He is completely incapable of any other approach.

[Ronnie]

Today, a new Gallup poll of likely voters in the U.S. has McCain surging ahead of Obama by 6 points.  Last month McCain trailed Obama about at least as many.

How much of this change in mood of the American electorate is because of the Russia/Georgia conflict and how much is just based on the electorate getting to know the candidates better?

I think it's both.  Last month, I was set to write-in a candidate as a protest vote.  That notion is now out the window, thanks to V.V. Putin.

My predictions:

Obama will choose Kathleen Sibelius as his VP and will pre-announce Joe Biden as his Secretary of State. 

McCain will choose Mitt Romney.

McCain will win the Presidency by a larger margin than anyone predicted.  Ebay founder Meg Whitman will be offered a cabinet-level position.

Romney will eventually succeed McCain.  The man is simply too attractive and too intelligent and will overcome the religious bigotry against him.

That's what I predict, not necessarlily what I would prefer.  I'd prefer an independent president like Lou Dobbs, but that ain't gonna happen

Anyone else care to predict????

[Lit_1nce]

Too early for predictions.. I'll wait until the debates.

The failure of the current administration in our relations with Russia (with our Russian expert Secretary of State) gives you reasoning to continue it ?

[wxman]

Stupid quote of the day from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice:

 "It's 2008 and the United States has a ... firm treaty guarantee to defend Poland's territory as if it was the territory of the United States. So it's probably not wise to throw these threats around."


This is almost similar to a quote from a member of Putin's administration when he spoke about Ukraine's wishes to join NATO. He said something to the affect that Ukraine doesn't need to join NATO as Russia will defend Ukraine.

Now I would like to ask both of them this one question:  Since when is Poland the 51st state and since when in Ukraine part of Russia?

Seems poor Poland and Ukraine can't shake be "owned" by another country and apparently they are incapable of making their own decisions, thus they are in need of an "owner"

Both Russia and the US have done what we thought would not happen again, that is polarizing the world again in two camps. Perhaps someday, both the people in the US and the people in Russia will toss out their relics of the past. The next 4 years doesn't appear to be any brighter based on who is running Russia now, and who will be the President of the US.

[Faux Pas]

Anyone else care to predict????

I couldn't even begin to predict. I don't see Romney as sellable to the American public. Gov of one of the most liberal states and an LDS. I expect he'll lean toward Leiberman. McCain proved last election as he was courted by Kerry that he is a bit of maverick as far as party loyalty.

FWIW I never though Obama had a snowballs chance in hell of getting the Democratic nomination either.


Our political future I just don't feel so good about.

[Ronnie]

Stupid quote of the day from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice:

 "It's 2008 and the United States has a ... firm treaty guarantee to defend Poland's territory as if it was the territory of the United States. So it's probably not wise to throw these threats around."

Rice understands the game of bluster.  The bear won't back down until it confronts a larger more determined bear.  Primitive, I know, but that's what the world is dealing with in Putin and Company.

[kievstar]

Poland and Ukraine really are a financial / political messes.  Both are struggling to host the football tournament "Euro Cup".  When you struggle to host a football tournament you really can not defend yourself.  

Poland has some legal agreements in the past with the USA on military cooperation so Rice may be honest in what she said.  

You have to take a hard line with Russia. When your the most powerful country in the World, you have to act on it as jealous countries will take it from you.  Regarding politicians how many here are really in worse financial shape than they were 4 years ago.  USA economy has grown a lot in 4 years so if your doing worse you need to re think about your spending / investing strategy.  

[Blues Fairy]

Putin's Russia simply demands respect and submission or else you will be punished.  This is the only method he knows.   He is completely incapable of any other approach.

Those Russian barbarians even in 1945 used disproportionate military force; rudely breached territorial integrity of independent Germany, and drove her democratically elected Chancellor to suicide.  
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