Russia is at it again!

[BC]

Well, on this point we will have to agree to disagree. I would say that the looming crises (demographic, economic, etc...) are not going to leave Russia two legs to stand on. Yes, the petrodollars have helped Russia feel like it is making a comeback, but it has weakened all the other sectors of the economy and have helped the Russian state to avoid necessary reforms and fight corruption. This is the long run will, sadly, make Russia poorer IMHO. Let's see five years from now who was right.

There are people much smarter than you and I looking at this issue..

Remember checkers vs chess?

Here is probably one of the most objective commentaries I have read to date on this issue:

http://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/challenges/competitors/2008/0812russia.htm

[I/O]

BC: Relative objectivity is often a debate between subjective opinions. I note you said "One of the most objective". I am not convinced even that far but......................certainly some aspects appear to be accurate and the following IMO is one of the most accurate.......

Russia is not a global power by any means, but a significant regional power

I think this distinction is what many fail to see. Russians hope, perhaps dream their nation has returned to world power status and they are prepared to ignore or justify the methodology of Moscow in acheiving that status. The reality is that Russia is not yet a seriously significant world power. It may become so but if history is anything to go by and unless Putin lives longer and is far smarter than those who went before him, which is highly unlikely, Russia is now somewhat isolated whether it likes it or not. Doesn't mean anything will change much. The west traded with the USSR as it will continue to trade with Russia.

I/O

[Mishenka]

US also wants the oil. So, who is next in its list? 

Olga, the USA does not "want" what it already has ownership in.  Let's look at the pipeline. The pipeline is an international effort and was built by a consortium led by UK oil giant BP, which has a 30% stake.  Other consortium members include Azerbaijan's state oil company Socar, Amerada Hess, ConocoPhillips ( USA), Eni, Inpex, Itochu, Statoil, Total, TPAO and Unocal ( USA)

Starting in Azerbaijan, the 1,600km (1,000 mile) pipeline will pass through Georgia to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The project has taken more than 10 years to finish and will unlock one of the world's biggest energy reserves.  1 million barrels a day will be delivered through it into the EU. At any given moment it contains 10 million barrels. The pipeline is heavily guarded. 

I think 18 Billion a year in revenue for Gazprom is the real reason for Putin to invade Georgia.  Russia will be in this rebuilding phase for a long long time before it is recognized as a world power. True it has come from a 3rd world country to a 2nd world country in the past 18 years.  People can dream for sure, but, even if, and its a huge if, Russia could return to USSR, this alone will not make it an economic power able to keep company with the G7-  USA,  China, Japan, Germany etc. Even China's GDP is only 25% of the USA GDP in trillions of dollars. (Gross domestic product) I don't think Russia will suffer greatly by not belonging to the G-7 or the WTO at this point.  I'm not even sure they fit the criteria.

[Mishenka]

Another interesting article to back up this point.

Israel backs Georgia in Caspian Oil Pipeline Battle with Russia

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

August 8, 2008

 Georgian tanks and infantry, aided by Israeli military advisers, captured the capital of breakaway South Ossetia, Tskhinvali, early Friday, Aug. 8, bringing the Georgian-Russian conflict over the province to a military climax.

Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin threatened a “military response.”

Former Soviet Georgia called up its military reserves after Russian warplanes bombed its new positions in the renegade province.
In Moscow’s first response to the fall of Tskhinvali, president Dimitry Medvedev ordered the Russian army to prepare for a national emergency after calling the UN Security Council into emergency session early Friday.

Reinforcements were rushed to the Russian “peacekeeping force” present in the region to support the separatists.

Georgian tanks entered the capital after heavy overnight heavy aerial strikes, in which dozens of people were killed.

Lado Gurgenidze, Georgia's prime minister, said on Friday that Georgia will continue its military operation in South Ossetia until a "durable peace" is reached. "As soon as a durable peace takes hold we need to move forward with dialogue and peaceful negotiations."

DEBKAfile’s geopolitical experts note that on the surface level, the Russians are backing the separatists of S. Ossetia and neighboring Abkhazia as payback for the strengthening of American influence in tiny Georgia and its 4.5 million inhabitants. However, more immediately, the conflict has been sparked by the race for control over the pipelines carrying oil and gas out of the Caspian region.

The Russians may just bear with the pro-US Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili’s ambition to bring his country into NATO. But they draw a heavy line against his plans and those of Western oil companies, including Israeli firms, to route the oil routes from Azerbaijan and the gas lines from Turkmenistan, which transit Georgia, through Turkey instead of hooking them up to Russian pipelines.

Saakashvili need only back away from this plan for Moscow to ditch the two provinces’ revolt against Tbilisi. As long as he sticks to his guns, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will wage separatist wars.

DEBKAfile discloses Israel’s interest in the conflict from its exclusive military sources:

Jerusalem owns a strong interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines reach the Turkish terminal port of Ceyhan, rather than the Russian network. Intense negotiations are afoot between Israel Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Azarbaijan for pipelines to reach Turkey and thence to Israel’s oil terminal at Ashkelon and on to its Red Sea port of Eilat. From there, supertankers can carry the gas and oil to the Far East through the Indian Ocean.

Aware of Moscow’s sensitivity on the oil question, Israel offered Russia a stake in the project but was rejected.

Last year, the Georgian president commissioned from private Israeli security firms several hundred military advisers, estimated at up to 1,000, to train the Georgian armed forces in commando, air, sea, armored and artillery combat tactics. They also offer instruction on military intelligence and security for the central regime. Tbilisi also purchased weapons, intelligence and electronic warfare systems from Israel.

These advisers were undoubtedly deeply involved in the Georgian army’s preparations to conquer the South Ossetian capital Friday.

In recent weeks, Moscow has repeatedly demanded that Jerusalem halt its military assistance to Georgia, finally threatening a crisis in bilateral relations. Israel responded by saying that the only assistance rendered Tbilisi was “defensive.”

This has not gone down well in the Kremlin. Therefore, as the military crisis intensifies in South Ossetia, Moscow may be expected to punish Israel for its intervention.

Intersno, da?

Mishenka

[OlgaH]

Olga, the USA does not "want" what it already has ownership in. 

USA is very interested in "U.S.-Turkey-Azerbaijan Cooperation in the Region" and in the "open energy markets" that "should go hand-in-hand with successful U.S.-Turkish-Azerbaijani strategic cooperation" as USA calls it on its gov website  and because of it USA will not leave these regions without its influence

The next 23rd Special session on development of Caspian Sea's legal status Convention will be in September 4-5 2008 in Baku.

[msmoby_ru]

During 12 hours UN and NATO was silently watching how Georgia was committing its crime against South Ossetia.

Still making emotive statements as if they are fact..... As you know, Russia was pouring in assets before the violence escalated - and there had already been a sizeable increase in skirmishes..

How do you or I know what was being done behind the scenes? ...and what do you think the UN can do, when it's appointed "peace-keeper" declares for one side?

But I also agree with Kishore Mahbubani

Quoting from a journalist working from another region that is claiming independence backed by Moscow.... not exactly a source you'd use to back up a claim !

So let's try to look to the future... do you believe this was a one-off incident? .. or do you think Russia will defend it's citizens in,say,  Ukraine, too?

If some Russian Federation states tell Moscow, that the majority of people DON'T wish to remain part of the Federation ... will Russia be as quick to defend their rights?

[LEGAL]

msmoby_ru  Again there is not a need for you to be sarcastic and antagonistic. I don't see I/O ,BC mishinka shadow or anyone else talking the way you do.

 Mishenka, BC ,I/O and others Thank you for being cordial in such a contraversal debate.

[BC]

Still making emotive statements as if they are fact..... As you know, Russia was pouring in assets before the violence escalated - and there had already been a sizeable increase in skirmishes..

How do you or I know what was being done behind the scenes? ...and what do you think the UN can do, when it's appointed "peace-keeper" declares for one side?



Quoting from a journalist working from another region that is claiming independence backed by Moscow.... not exactly a source you'd use to back up a claim !

So let's try to look to the future... do you believe this was a one-off incident? .. or do you think Russia will defend it's citizens in,say,  Ukraine, too?

If some Russian Federation states tell Moscow, that the majority of people DON'T wish to remain part of the Federation ... will Russia be as quick to defend their rights?

msmoby,

You really do need to either read or watch Putin's last interview.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/29/putin.transcript/index.html

Most, if not all of your questions are answered directly from the source.

[msmoby_ru]

msmoby_ru  Again there is not a need for you to be sarcastic and antagonistic. I don't see I/O ,BC mishinka shadow or anyone else talking the way you do.

 Mishenka, BC ,I/O and others Thank you for being cordial in such a contraversal debate.

Robert,

once again I'll remind you - as has been pointed out to you on RMP - there is a "an alert moderator function" - if you think I'm transgressing -  and *I* don't think I am... Now if you DO, then some-one closer to home might be a little more "guilty" .. !

Don't worry, Robert, being called a liar - about something that is demonstrably provable to the contrary is "cool" with me.....

[msmoby_ru]

msmoby,

You really do need to either read or watch Putin's last interview.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/29/putin.transcript/index.html

Most, if not all of your questions are answered directly from the source.

Sorry, BC, nothing "new" here.. BUT very interesting now Mr P got "upset" when the journo touched the rawest nerve re the Ukraine..

[OlgaH]

Don't worry, Robert, being called a liar - about something that is demonstrably provable to the contrary is "cool" with me.....

Prove your words

even though she has as good as called me ( and others) "stupid" for having differing views

If you can not prove, so enjoy your cool position being a liar.

[steviej]

msmoby,

You really do need to either read or watch Putin's last interview.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/29/putin.transcript/index.html

Most, if not all of your questions are answered directly from the source.

BC, great link. Thanks! One thing that strikes me is how incapable Bush would be of giving any kind of equally intelligent interview.

[OlgaH]

Olga, the USA does not "want" what it already has ownership in. 

Mishenka,

here is an interesting article that is written by By F William Engdahl

The Emerging Russian Giant Plays its Cards Strategically

http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Geopolitics___Eurasia/Russian_Giant/russian_giant.html

[msmoby_ru]

Prove your words

If you can not prove, so enjoy your cool position being a liar.

Olga you are simply demonstrating that

a) your English is worse than you thought
OR
b) you are being deliberately THICK

You say I altered a post adding a link - which I didn't - you posted the same link AFTER me

and I don't know how to prove I didn't - but it has been repeatedly hinted to you that Dan / or some other admin might..!


I didn't lie, and the FACT is your couldn't and still didn't respond to your ridiculous assertion re anyone differing from your line as a someone accepting "Bush propaganda" is still as silly and "insulting"...

Suggest you stop continuing to make an "ar*e" of yourself and apologise on both accounts  - you're just WRONG !!

Mega YAWN...  Time to move on .. Boring... 

[msmoby_ru]

That well know puveyor of "Bush Propaganda" -the BBC- has pointed some sat imagery demonstrating the inability of so called "peace-keeping" troops to control the areas of Georgia they occupy...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7588473.stm

[OlgaH]

msmoby_ru.

You still have not proved your words

even though she has as good as called me ( and others) "stupid" for having differing views

You are a liar

[Misha]

That well know puveyor of "Bush Propaganda" -the BBC- has pointed some sat imagery demonstrating the inability of so called "peace-keeping" troops to control the areas of Georgia they occupy...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7588473.stm

Interesting article. Underlines the hypocrisy of it all: for "peacekeepers" they certainly do their best to help one side over the other. Given that the majority of the South Ossetians are their "citizens" you would think that Russia would be capable of policing their own.

[msmoby_ru]

msmoby_ru.

You still have not proved your words

You are a liar

I wonder why you and Robert feel the need to write in bold ? !

Will your apology be in the same style.... ?

 

[OlgaH]

This aerial image of Kekhvi, an ethnic Georgian village approximately 9km north of the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali
August 30 2008

[msmoby_ru]

This aerial image of Kekhvi, an ethnic Georgian village approximately 9km north of the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali
August 30 2008

I suppose the UNHRW is now economical with the truth, too. Olga ?

[msmoby_ru]

Concerning this village - here is the link with photos taken on numerous days

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/KLMT-7HY7JK?OpenDocument

[OlgaH]

I suppose the UNHRW is now economical with the truth, too. Olga ?

You can use Google Earth and check.

But you are a liar.

[msmoby_ru]

You can use Google Earth and check.

But you are a liar.

Olga, it is unwise to call someone a liar and not to be able to prove it - especially in print - I have given you plenty of opportunity to pull your accusations - please demonstrate how I have lied - you are the accuser - kindly prove it...

Suggest you contact Google earth with your question.. I am pretty sure I know why Google Earth is "wrong" - but hey I work in " Sat comms " so what would I know?!

[OlgaH]

Olga, it is unwise to call someone a liar and not to be able to prove it - especially in print - I have given you plenty of opportunity to pull your accusations - please demonstrate how I have lied - you are the accuser - kindly prove it...

msmoby,

you haven't proven your words that you have written

even though she has as good as called me ( and others) "stupid" for having differing views

you are a liar.

[msmoby_ru]

msmoby,

you haven't proven your words that you have written

you are a liar.

Very SAD.. your need to get some good "legal" advice re proving someone is a "liar" - it is YOU that must demonstrate I have lied....