The Struggle For Ukraine

[Trenchcoat]

it's looking more and more likely that Russia will use Zapad-25 to launch an attack on Ukraine from Belarus
Russians are stockpiling equipment of the Finnish border to protect it from Ukrainian attack, cuz Ukraine won't "overfly" Finland to attack it
it can be quickly routed to Belarus

peace treaty is just Putin stalling for time
need to see if Belarus will join Russia or not

Russia's FOREX fund that's used for external financing of munitions, will be exhaused in 6 more months, due to lack of oil and gas sales
but Russia has a $200 billion USD gold stockpile that China would love to get their hands on that can be used to buy munitions

That's good news, once that money is spent, it's spent and Russia will be in an even weaker position in which to conduct the war and more importantly to hold the country together. The more economic indicators that are blinking red the deeper in the economic sh*t Russia becomes. At some point possibly next year and I would guess almost certainly the year after if not by then Russia's economy will totally fall apart and break up with economic catastrophe every. Banks that go bust, a worthless Ruble, food shortages, economic woes everywhere and little that will be able to be done as everywhere will be so busted.

Here is a recent report on Russia's economy, it shows as you have said before Krim that Russia is hiding a lot of it's economic problems and it's not in a good place:

http://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-economy-worse-shape-than-moscow-says-report-eu-shows-2025-05-13/

There's only so long Russia can hold on for, the longer it continues its war in Ukraine the worse shape it's economy will become as money goes to fund that war, gets used up and makes Russia economically weaker and weaker. Only a matter of time, all Ukraine and the West have to do is hold on, the worst they can do is agree to peace that would let Russia off the hook and risk passing a win to Russia where economic defeat is looming them in the face just perhaps months to a year or so away.

[krimster2]

Putin is the butcher who has a "meat wave military" powered by a "meat wave economy"
in Russia, slave virtues like obedience have great survival value

free men will ALWAYS be willing to FIGHT for their freedom, no matter the price
but Russians ain't NEVER been a free people

thankyou ancestors for leaving

[Trenchcoat]

reality sucks...
now it sucks even more
and in the future, it's gonna suck a lot worse than today

see, I know
but ya'll won't want me talk about the deal Putin and Xi Jinping have worked out in regards to a Naval Blockade of Taiwan a couple of years from now that must be done before Trump leaves office

the USA is preparing for it to happen in 2 years
in view of the cost benefit analysis of fighting goat eating Houthis, who haven't figured out how to build a 3 story house yet
a war with China is ridiculous
we are just reinforcing our OWN defenses in case "things get out of hand" and we have a short but INTENSE conventional war with China over the blockade
that's WHY we forced Taiwan to build a TSMC factory in the USA, cuz Trump is gonna dump Taiwan when the rubber hits the road

Trump has finally stated the obvious
it's not "saving young lives" he's after,
NO, the war is an obstacle to foreign trade with Russia and Trumps' own profiteering
that's WHY he wants to end it, by whatever means he can
and have Putin give him the credit
Trump's threats to put new sanctions on Putin was all bluff

Trump was hoping he could use trade leverage to influence Putin to move away from China to the USA
but Xi Jinping was WAY AHEAD of him, and already made Putin a better offer he "could't refuse"

Russia/China/North Korea in the Pacific
Iran and friends in the Red Sea

2 to 3 years from now

if the USA withdraws from NATO, Russia will advance towards Europe sometime in the next decade, if everything works out with China and Iran

If Trump was after getting Russia onside in any future war by doing deals on Ukraine it was always going to be a tough play. The very nature of Russia being more predisposed to want to move into Europe. China being more predisposed to move into the Pacific (Taiwan, South China Sea, etc). As far as I am aware there isn't a big history of disputed territory between Russia & China or a big want for territory along their border. That's not to say they don't see each other as potential threats as they are both next to one another but even in Soviet times there was co-operation between the two.

China I think will sell to anyone who has the money and will do deals with anyone where it sees that it will gain in its interests.

For the West the better option is to make sure that the war continues in Ukraine, that they keep supplying Ukraine and that Russia ideally has to end up chucking in the war through it's economy imploding. The best result of course is Russia breaking up through that economic implosion. The worst thing it can do is get to a peace deal now. A future Russia or Russian area that is so economically destroyed means it won't be joining China in any future war. The West dealing with it's enemies one by one is the best and easiest way of gaining victory over it's enemies rather than them joining forces and having to deal with them all at once. Russia probably only has about one year's worth of warfare left before it's economy implodes, maybe a bit more or a bit less, probably two years absolute maximum I would have thought.

Iran is one country that can be easily picked off in the near future from a potential Russia, China, North Korea, Iran Axis. Russia is getting in a position of being too weak to help Iran. China & North Korea are too far away from Iran and likely won't care about Iran anyway. Iran has lost Syria, the West has Israel as an ally in that area and Iran probably isn't that difficult a nut to crack. If it were me my preference would be for the West & Israel to totally hammer Iran with missiles, degrade it's military, infrastructure, state control structures, etc. Then dissident forces can rise up and the West can help them topple the regime. Even Iran in a mess being hammered by missiles means that it will be in no fit state to take part in any world war even if it is just in a supply of weapons basis.

[krimster2]

Iran will be launching Chinese missiles at the US Navy, and China will be launching Chinese missiles at the US Navy
dewds with wooden shoes will cut the Alaskan pipeline, keystone pipeline in USA
mexican cartels will be paid to attack Texas and Lousiana petro industry

the chickens are starting to come home now