Russia is at it again!

[BC]

Boy.. I guess this topic died as quickly as the headlines did..

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/27/world/europe/27russia.html?em

Guess this sort of seals the deal as far as RU goes.

Rice:  “I think it is regrettable,”

what's next?

[msmoby_ru]

Are you sure because the administration of Bush say so?

Oh Dear Olga!

are you so desparate to "discredit" valid points that I have suddenly become a Bush fan.. ?! ;-o 

FACT I'm Irish and our govt is reknowned for "sitting on the fence"... but not this time..  Russia is telling "fibs" about what it did and is doing in Georgia.. best example - the port of Poti - claims the Russians were "never there" - sinking Georgian vessels - now looking very silly... as silly as "Russia has withdrawn from Georgia" ( complying with the French agreement - but the French know nothing of "security zones" extending FAR south into Georgia !)

FACT: Georgia allowed OSCE in .. did Russia...?   Georgian authorities took a lot of flak  - but at least it allowed the observers IN to make their observations....  I wonder how Russia would have faired? .... 

http://www.osce.org/documents/odihr/2008/05/31268_en.pdf

http://www.osce.org/documents/odihr/2008/03/29982_en.pdf


Today, Russia has pulled out of co-operative agreements with NATO, and "recognised" Abkhazia and S.Ossetia as "independent"... It has told the world it will not deal with the elected leader of a Democracy and is preparing Russians for the "benefits" of WTO exclusion...


Spin away, Olga... When are the Russians coming to "liberate" Ukrainians?

[BC]

How can they prepare RU for WTO exclusion if they aren't benefiting anyway?

Diplomats in Geneva say Russia is already behind on reforms needed to join the WTO. “Russia appears to be motivated not by the prospect of economic reform or lowering tariffs for its goods but by the attraction of joining a club that most of the other countries in the world belong to,” said one diplomat.

The diplomat added that there was no sign that Russia had satisfactorily implemented necessary reforms in areas such as agriculture and export duties and that its progress was due to be reviewed at a meeting on September 18.

US officials such as Robert Gates, secretary of defence, have suggested the US could block Russian WTO membership. Some diplomats argue that even if Washington did no such thing, Georgia, also a WTO member, would be almost certain to veto a Russian bid.

The US had previously strongly backed Russian WTO membership, as a means of deepening the country’s ties to the outside world.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/db1d68e2-738c-11dd-8a66-0000779fd18c.html

Forgive me for being a bit ignorant, but how does WTO membership benefit RU and what are they missing out on.  Obviously they didn't take it that that seriously in the first place.

My take is that their next step is to begin building up their own economy, in that they begin producing their own goods and limiting the amount of imports available.  They have the know how but are still recovering in economic terms.  Maybe they see that being a net importer of goods is not good for the long term?

"deepening the country's ties to the outside world.." in an economic context that translates to dependency..

[OlgaH]

Oh Dear Olga!

are you so desparate to "discredit" valid points...

Really? Or may be someone is too disparate not to face the facts 

The OSCE-ODIHR's final report makes clear that the elections were held under undemocratic conditions 
http://www.idee.org/Georgia%20Page.html

GEORGIA
EXTRAORDINARY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
5 January 2008
OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report
Warsaw
4 March 2008
http://www.osce.org/documents/odihr/2008/03/29982_en.pdf

[Misha]

My take is that their next step is to begin building up their own economy, in that they begin producing their own goods and limiting the amount of imports available.  They have the know how but are still recovering in economic terms.

Well, this is what the Soviets were doing. They produced their own cars, their own refrigerators, their own televisions, ...

The problem: when given the first opportunity, Russians dumped their Russian-made televisions and bought Japanese sets, they bought German designed washing machines and dreamed of buying an "inomarka" car.

They had the know-how, but their own consumers did not necessarily want to buy what they produced.

[Misha]

Really? Or may be someone is too disparate not to face the facts 

The OSCE-ODIHR's final report makes clear that the elections were held under undemocratic conditions 

Olga,

Where, precisely, does the OSCE report say that the elections were "undemocratic"?

Again, the elections were not perfect, but they were far from undemocratic.

An excerpt from the very report you cite:

"Following an invitation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia to observe the 5
January 2008 extraordinary presidential election, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions
and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR) deployed an Election Observation Mission (EOM) on 6
December 2007, consisting of 41 experts and long-term observers. The OSCE/ODIHR EOM
assessed compliance of the election process with OSCE commitments and other international
standards for democratic elections, as well as with domestic legislation. On election-day, the
OSCE/ODIHR joined efforts with observer delegations of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly
(OSCE PA), the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) and the European
Parliament (EP) to form an International Election Observation Mission (IEOM).

In its Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions of 6 January, the IEOM stated that
while the election was in essence consistent with most OSCE and Council of Europe
commitments and standards for democratic elections, it also revealed significant challenges
which need to be addressed urgently. Although this election represented the first genuinely
competitive post-independence presidential election, shortcomings were noted."

Where, exactly, do you read in here that the election was undemocratic? It was not perfect, but qualifies as democratic by OSCE standards.

[OlgaH]

Olga,

Where, precisely, does the OSCE report say that the elections were "undemocratic"?

Misha the OSCE made report about violations. What do you think would happen if such violation took place in US election?

Some violations from OSCE report on the election in Georgia:

According to OSCE/ODIHR EOM media monitoring, campaign coverage in the news of most monitored TV stations, including public television, lacked balance, with the ruling party candidate generally receiving the most coverage.

The blurring of the line between the State and a political party, which is not in compliance with
paragraph 5.4 of the 1990 OSCE Copenhagen Document, created an unequal campaign
environment and was a cause of contention. The distribution of vouchers for such things as
utilities and medical supplies to pensioners and other vulnerable groups was criticized as an
alleged use of budgetary funds in support of Mr. Saakashvili’s campaign. UNM officials stated
that the voucher distribution was planned before the beginning of the campaign. However, there
is evidence that the distribution was used for campaign purposes. Distributors of vouchers
sometimes asked recipients whether they would vote for Mr. Saakashvili, and asked them to
sign documents confirming their support.

The inauguration of a new pipeline by Mr. Saakashvili in Akhalkalaki on 24 December, as well as the official opening of the Tbilisi- Senaki-Leselidze highway lighting system, were given the appearance of presidential events, not consistent with Mr. Saakashvili’s ex-President status and as a candidate who did not hold public office at the time.

A number of cases of violence against opposition activists, including kidnapping, were reported by individuals and political parties, and were in some cases verified.

a debate between four main contestants did not take place as Mr. Saakashvili chose not to take part and his three main rivals had conditioned their participation upon their ability to debate with him. This denied voters an opportunity to see these key candidates exchange policy views in an interactive format, and was compounded by the general reluctance of the media to provide critical reporting.

Two nationwide private TV channels, Rustavi 2 and Mze, showed clear support for Mr.
Saakashvili and provided him with substantial prime-time news coverage.

The very high cost of paid political advertising on television limited the candidates’ possibilities
to campaign in the media. Three of the channels charged approximately ten times more for
political advertising than for commercials. Only Mr. Saakashvili was able to place paid spots on all four nationwide channels.

Reports were submitted to various law enforcement and governmental bodies, with allegations
of intimidation, threats, and attacks on opposition supporters and their close family members,
some implicating law enforcement officials. The police did not appear to sufficiently investigate
such complaints, and the Interior Ministry reported that many cases have been closed for lack of evidence. The OSCE/ODIHR EOM is not aware of any criminal prosecutions being initiated in
such cases.

The most widespread procedural irregularities were related to inking safeguards, with not all
voters being checked for ink in 15 per cent of polling stations visited, and ink not always being
applied in 12 per cent. In addition, IEOM observers reported that during their visits to 14 polling
stations, voters who had already been inked were allowed to vote. Other violations included
seemingly identical signatures on the voter lists (4 per cent), multiple and proxy voting (1 and 2
per cent, respectively) and group or family voting (5 per cent). In 3 per cent of polling stations,
the ballot boxes were not properly sealed. IEOM observers witnessed five cases of ballot box
stuffing, as well as five cases of carousel voting, a vote buying scheme.

In 2 per cent of polling stations, voters were denied the right to vote for inappropriate reasons. In 11 per cent of polling stations visited on election day, observers noted cases of citizens having been turned away because their names were not found on the precinct’s voter list.

Secrecy of the vote was not always ensured, with 6 per cent of IEOM observer reports
indicating that not all voters marked their ballots in secrecy. Thirty-four per cent of polling
stations visited throughout election day were equipped with video surveillance cameras. IEOM
observers noted that in 11 per cent of polling station thus equipped (or 63 polling stations), the
placement of the video cameras was such that it did not ensure the secrecy of the vote.
In polling stations visited by IEOM observers throughout election day, an average of some 5 per
cent of those who voted had been added to the additional voter list on election day. In 2 per cent
of polling stations visited, voters were added to the additional list without providing proof that
they were registered within the territory of the precinct. In 2 per cent of polling stations, voters
were denied the right to vote for inappropriate reasons. In 11 per cent of polling stations visited
on election day, observers noted cases of citizens having been turned away because their names
were not found on the precinct’s voter list.

The presence of unauthorized persons, mostly police, was observed in 8 per cent of polling
stations. In 18 cases, such persons were interfering in or directing the work of the PEC.
Domestic non-party observers were present in 94 per cent of polling stations visited, and
candidate proxies, in 96 percent. Frequently, the number of proxies per candidate exceeded that
stipulated in the UEC. IEOM observers reported that domestic observers were sometimes
participating in the election process, thus interfering with the activities of PECs.

The CEC also conducted a voter education campaign through the national media on issues such
as voter lists, secrecy of the vote, falsification of IDs and multiple voting. Some ten days before
election day, the CEC produced stickers with the text “Where will you be on 5 January?”, with
the number “5” in a red circle visually resembling that used on Mr. Saakashvili’s campaign
materials. Such stickers were widely distributed among young voters and were in evidence in
polling stations on election day.

The vote count was evaluated less positively than the polling process. A significant 23 per cent
of counts observed by IEOM observers were assessed as bad or very bad. Adherence to
procedures was rated as bad or very bad in 17 per cent of counts observed, and the PECs’
understanding of procedures and their performance were rated negatively in 18 and 17 per cent,
respectively, of counts observed. In most polling stations observed, the counting process was
very slow. IEOM observers reported that in 8 per cent of counts observed, they had witnessed tampering with voter list entries, election results, or results protocols.

In 21 per cent of counts observed, they reported significant procedural errors or omissions. Some 35 per cent of PECs did not perform various steps of the vote count in the prescribed order.

One out of three PECs had problems completing the results protocol, and 19 per cent of PECs
revised figures they had entered into the protocol earlier. Occasionally, protocols were presigned (6 per cent) and completed in pencil rather than ink.


In addition, the CEC and courts tended to stretch the law beyond reasonable interpretation and
without regard to its spirit in favour of the ruling party candidate and public officials.
After election day, the election administration and the courts did not fully and adequately
consider and investigate a considerable number of complaints regarding irregularities, some of
which were of a serious nature.

In adjudication of complaints, the CEC failed to follow important procedures provided by
domestic laws and international standards.

CEC lawyers, who presented the cases and legal opinions to the commission, carried out their professional duties in a noticeably biased manner, providing legal opinions which were usually unsound and which favored the ruling party candidate and government officials

[Misha]

Again, all the citations demonstrate that the election was not perfect, but hardly undemocratic.

[steviej]

Olga, I'm nominating you for US Secretary of State.   

[Lit_1nce]

Sadly, many of those voting irregularities have shown up in US elections.

[msmoby_ru]

Really? Or may be someone is too disparate not to face the facts 

The OSCE-ODIHR's final report makes clear that the elections were held under undemocratic conditions 
http://www.idee.org/Georgia%20Page.html

GEORGIA
EXTRAORDINARY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
5 January 2008
OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report
Warsaw
4 March 2008
http://www.osce.org/documents/odihr/2008/03/29982_en.pdf

Interesting..

1/First, you accused anyone not agreeing with your falling for all the Russian line as a "Bush supporter" ...  and never "retracted"

2/ It was pointed out that the Georgians at least allowed the OSCE in - and that Russia didn't - no response....

3/ Your reply included one of the links *I* used to "back up your point of view" !!

Olga, you seem to be forgetting that I think Georgia should "let" Abkhazia and S.Ossettia go - *you* need to see that Russia hasn't been even-handed in it's trusted role as "peace-keeper"

4/ You still don't comment on my contention that this is all about showing Ukraine that it must stay Russia's "friend" by doing as Russia wants.... or else !

5/ You don't comment that what Russia tells the world re the "withdrawal" is a LIE.....

[Shadow]

Well, this is what the Soviets were doing. They produced their own cars, their own refrigerators, their own televisions, ...

The problem: when given the first opportunity, Russians dumped their Russian-made televisions and bought Japanese sets, they bought German designed washing machines and dreamed of buying an "inomarka" car.

They had the know-how, but their own consumers did not necessarily want to buy what they produced.

That is nothing strange. Toyota is doing great in the US, Mercedes is top-selling in Japan.
Foreign products can be interesting for a number of reasons. Price is one, status is another.
After some years where they were lingering, the Russian car industry is slowly coming back.


I want a Volga 

[msmoby_ru]

How can they prepare RU for WTO exclusion if they aren't benefiting anyway?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/db1d68e2-738c-11dd-8a66-0000779fd18c.html

THAT would explain the huge drop in the Russian markets yesterday , then ? !!

Forgive me for being a bit ignorant..

Sorry, it's more than a "little"...

...but how does WTO membership benefit RU and what are they missing out on.  Obviously they didn't take it that that seriously in the first place. ..

Strange statement... Putin was in power eight years, right ? .... implimenting the criteria for membership..so WHY the about face, now.... ? !

My take is that their next step is to begin building up their own economy, in that they begin producing their own goods and limiting the amount of imports available.  They have the know how but are still recovering in economic terms.  Maybe they see that being a net importer of goods is not good for the long term?

My take is that Russia has decided to nationalise institutions it wishes to bring under it's control, and it knows it will no longer be able to be trusted in the conventional business way... I think this is part of a bigger, sinister picture...

"deepening the country's ties to the outside world.." in an economic context that translates to dependency..

As opposed to what it seems is Russia's path... insularity, "persuading" former satellites to follow their mantra..."or else" .... Watch out Belarus, Ukraine, etc.

[BC]

Moby, my question was fairly simple, but maybe presented in complex form.

Let me rephrase:

How would WTO membership benefit the common RU citizen?

What will they loose by not becoming WTO member?

[OlgaH]

Interesting..

1/First, you accused anyone not agreeing with your falling for all the Russian line as a "Bush supporter" ...  and never "retracted"

First, I did not accuse anyone not agreeing... I said that somebody trusts too much pro-Bush propaganda. Please show me my post with "Bush supporter"

2/ It was pointed out that the Georgians at least allowed the OSCE in - and that Russia didn't - no response....

2/ The ODIHR has observed a number of elections in Russia, including the 2003 parliamentary election, the 2000 presidential election, the 1999 parliamentary election, the 1996 presidential election, and the 1995 parliamentary election. Parliamentary Assembly President Goran Lennmarker did not say that OSCE was refused by Russia in observing the election in 2007 http://www.oscepa.org/News/Media/206-OSCE%20Parliamentary%20Assembly%20to%20observe%20elections%20in%20Russia

And please, don't try to accuse me of protecting the idea of democracy in Russia, because in my posts even on different forums I always expressed my opinion that the democracy in Russia exists only as a word 

Right now I say that somebody can not see a beam in his own eye...

3/ Your reply included one of the links *I* used to "back up your point of view" !!

Today you changed one of your links in your previous post . So, it is a good lesson for me next time not to trust so much and just make a whole quote.

Olga, you seem to be forgetting that I think Abkhazia and S.Ossettia go - *you* need to see that Russia hasn't been even-handed in it's trusted role as "peace-keeper"

I think when Georgia declared its war against South Ossetia it was a war but not an armed conflict anymore. Your mileage may vary

4/ You still don't comment on my contention that this is all about showing Ukraine that it must stay Russia's "friend" by doing as Russia wants.... or else !

I also already posted information that according to polls conducted recently by the independent Democratic Initiatives Foundation in Kiev, 59 percent of Ukrainians would vote against joining NATO, up from 53 percent last December, while 22 percent would vote in favor, down from 32 percent.
http://www.iht.com/articl...008/06/16/europe/nato.php

5/ You don't comment that what Russia tells the world re the "withdrawal" is a LIE.....

The withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia has been completed in line with the plan aimed at settling the conflict in South Ossetia, according to military officials. The pact, worked out by the Russian and French presidents, allows peacekeepers to provide additional security measures in the conflict zone. http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/29399

[msmoby_ru]

Moby, my question was fairly simple, but maybe presented in complex form.

Let me rephrase:

How would WTO membership benefit the common RU citizen?

What will they loose by not becoming WTO member?

Well, if you follow the current Russian line the "man in the street" they will "GAIN" - hmm - but the markets know better. If Russia wishes to protect it's markets it will find reciprosity - the companies that HAVE invested in Russia have a choice - accept unconventional strong-arm tactics, and keep your assets in Russia - or else....

We've seen how BP and Shell ( for example ) have been treated... trumped up "environmental proceedural failures", etc.

The average man in the street in Russia is already feeling the pinch, too ( rising food prices and falling value of assets ) and - as with all govts that have problems - a little distraction does no harm, eh ? The high oil prices ( Russian airlines pay FAR more for aviation kersosine that in the west ) have just seen a major default by Air Union(KrasAir, Domodedovo, and Omsk Avia) and there will be more......

[Shadow]

We've seen how BP and Shell ( for example ) have been treated... trumped up "environmental proceedural failures", etc.

However a Shell executive was quoted that these issues would not prevent Shell from doing further business in Russia.
Russians understand the principle of a 'fair share', if you refuse to give it they will find a way to take it.
But as long as the end result is profitable, big companies will continue to invest.

[Misha]

But as long as the end result is profitable, big companies will continue to invest.

Well, it is hard to be profitable if you are pushed out of the market by the state or Russian businesses aided and abetted by the state. Investors are clearly pessimistic and this is seen in the Russian stock market as investors have clearly soured on Russia these last few weeks. The dollar dominated RTS had hit a high of 2,498.10 point in May and yesterday closed at 1,579.12. This is close to a 40% drop in 3 months.   

[Misha]

This from an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal:

"Western public opinion fell with disconcerting facility for the thesis advanced -- from the very first day -- by the Kremlin's propaganda machine. We know now that the Russian army had been hard at work on its war preparations since before Aug. 8. We know that it massed at the "border" between Georgia and Ossetia a considerable military and paramilitary logistical presence. We know the Russians had methodically repaired the railroad tracks that the troop-transport trains were to take, and we know that at least 150 tanks went through the Roky tunnel separating the two Ossetias the morning of Aug. 8. In other words, no one can ignore the fact that President Saakhashvili only decided to act when he no longer had a choice, and war had already come. In spite of this accumulation of facts that should have been blindingly obvious to all scrupulous, good-faith observers, many in the media rushed as one man toward the thesis of the Georgians as instigators, as irresponsible provocateurs of the war."

[Misha]

After some years where they were lingering, the Russian car industry is slowly coming back.

With the help of Western investment and technology.

[OlgaH]

This from an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal:

"Western public opinion fell with

because it is western public opinion?  BTW when Robert and I had our last mediations the words of lawyers and mediators were they do not trust the western media about the Georgia-South Ossetia-Russia events.

Here are also opinions 

What resurrecting Cold War with Russia costs us

By Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, Harvard PhD, is a strategic planner who has worked in U.S. national security affairs since the end of the Cold War. He is the author of The Pentagon's New Map and has worked in senior positions at the United States Naval War College.
http://www.tiraspoltimes.com/opinion/what_resurrecting_cold_war_with_russia_costs_us.html

The West is strategically wrong on Russia

By Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (National University of Singapore)

http://www.tiraspoltimes.com/opinion/the_west_is_strategically_wrong_on_russia.html

Who Started Cold War II?

By Patrick J. Buchanan, former U.S. presidential candidate and White House aide.
http://www.tiraspoltimes.com/opinion/who_started_cold_war_ii.html

BTW Georgia doesn't want to lose Russian investors 
http://invest.rin.ru/cgi-bin/news.pl?n=174115

[Faux Pas]

Moby, my question was fairly simple, but maybe presented in complex form.

Let me rephrase:

How would WTO membership benefit the common RU citizen?

What will they loose by not becoming WTO member?

I'll take a quick but simplistic stab at fielding this one. Membership in WTO opens up the doors of venture capital from around the world. Infused capital is essential if Russia's economy is to grow. Without it, it will remain stagnant to the rest of the civilized world. Take a snapshot of anytime in the last 90 years of Russia's economy and you'll see high prices and low wages. This is the result of isolation from the goods and services of the rest of the world and a competing market place. The price of goods is based on supply and demand. No matter where you are.

How world venture capital helps the man on the street is many ways, directly and indirectly. First and foremost competing companies pay higher wages. Goods and services improve again because of the competing market place. Indirectly, the tax bases for both local and national become higher and normally reinvested in infrastructure.

It's really not rocket science. The investors within the WTO want certain guarantees and assurances that their money and/or investments is safe from government or regime control.

[BC]

Faux Pas,

Considering the level of commercialization and foreign products available (and being bought) that I saw in RU during my last trip, I have a hard time trying to think how they could benefit even more from WTO membership.

WTO or not, the west will continue to pump their goods into RU to balance out their foreign debt.  There is no lack of quality products.

Maybe the Kremlin wants to slow the economy down a bit to a more reasonable pace, prodding re-investment inland instead of shipping profits overseas.

[Faux Pas]

BC

Thats true. There has been ample foreign products in Russia for quite sometime since Perostroyka (sp). But not in all facets of the economy and what you are seeing is on the retail level. Goods produced elsewhere and sold in Russia is a deficit to Russia's GDP. The benefit of the WTO is on the higher end capital investment/ manufacturing.

[Blues Fairy]

Considering the level of commercialization and foreign products available (and being bought) that I saw in RU during my last trip, I have a hard time trying to think how they could benefit even more from WTO membership.

WTO or not, the west will continue to pump their goods into RU to balance out their foreign debt.  There is no lack of quality products.

As I see it, WTO imposes a number of mutual rules and limitations on the principles of trade between its members, including but not limited to: trade policies, product standards, customs, investment, price formation, IP rights etc.

For Russia, the benefits of participation in WTO would be having equal rights in the formulation of these rules and an opportunity to push its strategic interests within these rules.  As a result - more transparency, more predictability, less discrimination in trade with WTO members.  

However, would Russia really be happy to play by the rules?  I highly doubt that.  It looks like for Russia, being outside the system of rules and limitations is much more beneficial, all WTO perks notwithstanding.  No limitations on protectionist policies; freedom to impose draconian taxes on certain imports; no standards, no IP rights protection, no licensing control, freedom in setting damping prices, etc.  Moreover, WTO membership would push Russian economics to enforce greater internal transparency and legalization, which, although declared as an immediate goal by the government, is hardly welcomed by all the key players.